Is This The Start of a New Bull Market?

I’ll admit it — when Bitcoin jumps more than 10% in a matter of weeks, from $62,000 to nearly $69,000, it feels good.

Green candles have a way of rewriting memory.

Suddenly, timelines shift from despair to optimism. People start talking about breakouts, renewed momentum, “the next leg higher.”

But when I zoom out — when I step back from the noise and actually look at the structure — I don’t see a confirmed bull market.

I see a counter rally inside a broader bear trend.

And that distinction matters.

Yes, Bitcoin has rallied. Over 10% in a short window is nothing to dismiss.

But price alone doesn’t define trend. Structure does.

Bitcoin is still trading below its 44-day simple moving average — sitting around $78,000 — and below its 125-day average as well.

Those aren’t just arbitrary lines on a chart. Historically, during bear markets, those moving averages flip from support to resistance.

And right now, they’re above us.

That tells me something simple: the medium-term trend remains bearish.

Every prior bear market had moments like this. Sharp bounces. Relief rallies. Short squeezes.

They felt convincing at the time.

Until they weren’t.

The 200-week moving average — which used to be the ultimate “never break” support — was already violated in 2023. That alone tells me we’re not in a textbook bull continuation phase.

If anything, we’re in a structurally fragile environment where rallies should be questioned, not chased.

Ethereum dominance has ticked up slightly.

But when I look at the broader range, it’s still drifting inside a downward channel relative to Bitcoin.

In strong bull markets, Ethereum tends to outperform. It becomes the beta play. The leverage of crypto.

That’s not happening.

Ethereum’s volatility is high, yes. But dominance trends suggest relative weakness, not leadership.

And without Ethereum strength, it’s very hard to argue that a sustainable altcoin cycle is around the corner.

Polka Dot just printed a 35% short-term move.

That’s the kind of number that makes headlines.

But here’s the uncomfortable truth: in relative terms, DOT has underperformed for a long time.

A single sharp bounce doesn’t undo months — even years — of structural weakness.

In bear markets, smaller caps are prone to short squeezes.

Thin liquidity + crowded shorts = violent upside spikes.

But those squeezes often become perfect shorting opportunities once momentum fades.

I don’t see sustained capital rotation into altcoins yet. I see traders chasing volatility.

That’s not the same thing.

Tron underperformed even during a strong market day.

That tells me risk appetite isn’t broad.

There are also lingering concerns around reserves and backing within its ecosystem — issues that matter more in bear markets than in euphoric ones.

Cardano is sitting near the lower end of a long-term trading range.

Could it bounce? Sure.

But altcoins don’t sustainably rally without two things:

We have neither.

Altcoin season doesn’t start because people hope it will. It starts because capital flows demand it.

And right now, the stablecoin data says capital isn’t flowing in.

This is one of the most overlooked macro indicators in crypto.

The stablecoin market cap relative to US money supply stopped growing in October last year.

That means net fiat inflow into crypto has stalled.

No new money = no sustainable bull market.

The last time we saw a major structural break in stablecoin growth was around the Terra Luna collapse.

And that collapse triggered massive outflows and long-lasting damage to ecosystem confidence.

Liquidity is oxygen.

When oxygen stops flowing, rallies become short-lived.

This is where it gets interesting.

Bitcoin treasury companies and ETFs continue accumulating.

That’s institutional conviction.

Meanwhile, long-term holders have largely been accumulating since late 2022.

So who’s pushing the price down?

Miners.

And leveraged traders.

Mining difficulty keeps rising. Margins compress when the price falls. Some miners capitulate. They sell inventory.

At the same time, open interest in Bitcoin futures has been declining since October.

That’s deleveraging.

Speculators are exiting.

When leverage unwinds, price falls faster than fundamentals alone would suggest.

But it also means rallies tend to be weaker — because fewer traders are positioned to fuel explosive upside.

The halving happened in April 2024.

Historically, halving cycles don’t produce instant vertical moves.

There’s often post-halving volatility, distribution, and months of selling pressure before the next sustained leg higher begins.

People treat the halving like a switch.

It’s not a switch.

It’s a slow structural supply change interacting with demand.

And demand — as shown by stablecoin stagnation — isn’t accelerating yet.

This is the part nobody likes to discuss.

Historically, Bitcoin drawdowns from all-time highs have ranged between 65% and 72%.

If we apply that to the $126,000 peak, that implies a potential bottom somewhere between $35,000 and $44,000.

Coincidentally, the long-term holder realized price sits around $41,000.

That’s not a magical support level. But in past cycles, Bitcoin has often revisited — and sometimes broken — long-term holder cost basis before bottoming.

We’re nowhere near that yet.

The 200-week moving average sits around $58,000.

We’re hovering near it.

But if that breaks convincingly, the next magnet is lower.

That doesn’t mean it must happen.

But it’s within historical precedent.

Counter rallies are dangerous.

They feel like validation.

They make shorts nervous.

They make sidelined buyers impatient.

But structurally, they often represent nothing more than short covering and temporary demand imbalances.

If Bitcoin pushes toward $77,000 — maybe even $90,000 — without reclaiming and holding above key moving averages, I will still treat it as a bear market rally.

Trend-following isn’t about predicting the bottom.

It’s about respecting structure.

And the structure right now says: below key averages, momentum remains down.

In bull markets, I buy dips.

In bear markets, I sell rallies.

Right now, I’m treating strength as an opportunity to reduce exposure or tactically position short — not to aggressively accumulate.

That doesn’t mean I’m anti-Bitcoin long-term.

It means I respect the cycle.

Crypto is no longer the early-stage asymmetric playground it once was.

Risk/reward at $60K–$70K is very different from risk/reward at $3K or $10K.

The goal isn’t to double capital overnight.

It’s to compound steadily and outpace fiat debasement.

That requires survival.

Could I be wrong?

Of course.

If Bitcoin reclaims its 44-day and 125-day moving averages decisively, holds them as support, and we see stablecoin growth resume — I’ll reassess.

Trend-following works both ways.

But until that happens, I won’t let a 10% bounce rewrite the broader narrative.

This doesn’t feel like the start of something explosive.

It feels like the middle of something corrective.

And in markets, context is everything.

If we are still in a broader bear market — and the evidence suggests we are — then patience, discipline, and risk management matter far more than chasing green candles.

The rally is real.

But so is the resistance.

And until resistance breaks, I’m treating this as a counter rally — not a new beginning.