I Stayed Bullish Exactly till October. Now I’m Listening to the Market

For most of the last few years, I was firmly on the bullish side of Bitcoin. Not blindly bullish. Not “up only” bullish. But structurally bullish.

Through 2023, through 2024, and well into 2025, I kept giving Bitcoin the benefit of the doubt.

I watched macro scares come and go. The Japanese yen carry trade implosion in August 2024 didn’t break the structure. The tariff drama in April 2025 didn’t either.

Every time the narrative got loud, the chart stayed intact. As long as Bitcoin respected its higher-timeframe levels, I was willing to stay constructive.

That changed in Nov 2025. And it wasn’t because of a headline. It was because the market finally invalidated itself.

Everyone has a level that forces them to reassess. For me, it was the 50-week moving average.

When Bitcoin lost that level in late 2025, it wasn’t just another dip. It was a structural break.

Markets can survive bad news. They can survive liquidations. They can survive fear. What they can’t survive is losing long-term trend support and failing to reclaim it.

That break was the moment my bias shifted from “buy weakness” to “protect capital.” From bullish to cautiously bearish. And everything that followed has reinforced that decision.

The $1.7 billion in liquidations we just saw didn’t surprise me. What surprised me was how unprepared people were for it.

Liquidations are not the cause of bear markets. They are the symptom.

What they expose is a market that was positioned for only one outcome. No hedges. No alternative scenarios. No plan B.

When price starts moving against that kind of positioning, the unwind becomes violent. And once forced selling begins, it feeds on itself.

This wasn’t a “black swan.” It was a leverage problem meeting a weak structure.

This is the part that really made me stop and think.

In past cycles, long-term holders sold into strength. They distributed at new all-time highs in 2017. They did the same in 2021. They took profits near $70K and again near $100K.

That’s normal. That’s healthy. This cycle is different.

Long-term holders are selling into falling prices. Not aggressively panic selling. But clearly distributing earlier than history would suggest.

That tells me conviction has changed.

It doesn’t mean Bitcoin is dead. It doesn’t mean the long-term thesis is broken. But it does mean that expectations for the next leg higher have been pushed further out.

On the other side of this trade are short-term holders. And they’re getting crushed.

Short-term holders are realizing losses faster and at larger scale than in many prior bear markets. They’re selling into weakness. They’re exiting at exactly the wrong time.

This creates a brutal dynamic.

Long-term holders distribute. Short-term holders panic sell. Price drops further. Confidence erodes. It’s not rebalancing. It’s fear. And fear is what drives markets toward their eventual bottom.

I’ve learned to respect this metric.

Every major bear market has followed the same pattern:

That happened in 2018. It happened in 2022. And it’s happening again now.

We’re approaching a fourth consecutive red month. The last time that happened was at the tail end of the 2018 bear market. That doesn’t mean we bottom tomorrow. It means we’re no longer in a bull regime.

I don’t need fancy indicators to tell me who’s in control. I just watch how price behaves around ranges.

We established a clear range:

What matters isn’t the range itself. It’s how price reacts to it.

Bitcoin pushed above $94,000 multiple times.
And every time, it failed.

That’s a false breakout. And false breakouts are one of my favorite bearish signals. They tell me buyers tried. They failed. And sellers are still in control. Until proven otherwise, I assume price revisits the range low.

When markets weaken, not all assets fall equally.

Bitcoin tends to hold up better than altcoins. Ethereum usually underperforms Bitcoin in risk-off phases. High-beta names get destroyed.

That’s why I’ve been rotating out of alts like Solana and even trimming Ethereum exposure. Not because I hate them. But because I respect the phase we’re in. I’d rather hold Bitcoin. And I’d rather hold dry powder. That gives me optionality.

Ethereum breaking below its range low tells me it’s under pressure. But it’s also approaching levels where long-term value starts to matter again.

Fees are at their lowest since 2017. That’s not bullish in the short term. But it is a sign of capitulation.

Ethereum still dominates TVL. That dominance is mostly a function of its size, not activity growth. But it matters.

I’m watching the $2,000 area closely. That’s where risk-reward starts to flip.

Solana held its range for over two years. Breaking it now is significant. It tells me risk appetite is fading. It tells me speculative capital is retreating. Could it bounce? Of course. But structurally, that break matters more than any influencer thread.

Binance converting $1 billion in stablecoins into Bitcoin during weakness is unusual. I don’t know their motive. Neither does anyone else.

It could be balance sheet positioning. It could be optics. It could be an attempt to stabilize sentiment. I’m not trading based on it. But I’m watching closely.

Here’s where it gets interesting — Global liquidity is rising. Historically, that supports risk assets.

But that liquidity has flowed into gold and silver, not Bitcoin. And the blow-off top in metals — gold down 15%, silver down 40% — looks like exhaustion, not strength.

The dollar’s false breakdown and recovery tells me it still has demand. The Fed pausing cuts wasn’t surprising. Neither was the appointment of Kevin Worsh.

Markets expecting immediate QE are likely early. Long-term, deficits and debasement still favor Bitcoin. Short-term, patience is required.

This’s the conclusion I keep coming back to.

Not early bull.
Not mid-cycle.
Late-stage bear.

Capitulation behavior. Weak structure. Exhausted sentiment.

That doesn’t mean price goes straight down. It never does. But it doesmean survival matters more than bravado right now.

I’m not here to predict the exact bottom.
I’m here to manage risk.

That means:

Bitcoin will have another major run.
I don’t doubt that for a second.

But markets don’t reward impatience. They reward discipline.

And right now, discipline means listening to what the market is saying — even when it’s uncomfortable.