Setting The Stage: The Plan

I will sell all my crypto in November.

This is not a joke.

This is not clickbait.

This is a plan I’ve executed before, and it made me more money than any diamond-hands sermon ever did.

Many think I’m an idiot.
They say I’m weak.
They say I’m scared.
They are wrong.

I see a setup I’ve seen twice before.
It paid me in 2017.
It paid me in 2021.
It is lining up again.

The Cliff Moment

Back then everything looked perfect.
Back then the atmosphere was euphoric.
Back then the market turned around in days.

Folks pleaded for “one more leg.”
The market provided them with a cliff.
I’m not waiting for the cliff this time.

The Playbook

Following is my complete November playbook.
I’m spelling it out, line by line.
You may follow it, disregard it, or ridicule it.
But when the music stops, I will already be at the door.

Why November?

History Rhymes

History doesn’t repeat, but it certainly has a love affair with karaoke.
The last act always rhymes.

  • Liquidity peaks.

  • Narratives peak.

  • Attention peaks.

Then gravity does what gravity does.

2017

In 2017 the last melt-up lasted weeks, not months.
Bitcoin topped out first.
Ethereum pressed a little higher afterward.
Altcoins became face-melters for a blink.

Then they dropped 60–80% in what could’ve been a long weekend.

2021: The Sequel

In 2021 the film replayed with more production value.
Institutions nodded along.
Media frothed into a frenzy.
Retail ran in like a bull.

  • Funding went vertical.

  • Open interest blew up.

  • Altcoins howled.

Then the air pocket.
Then the airless vacuum.

The Pattern

Every cycle prints a last blow-off.
Every cycle tempts you to be greedy at precisely the worst moment.
Every cycle rewards hesitation with ferocity.

  • September baits the trap.

  • October revs the engine.

  • November is the last blast and the secret door.

The Macro Spark That Ignites The Fuse

Fed Moves

The Fed just cut 25 bps.
That is gasoline, not water.
That money does not linger in bonds for more than a nanosecond.

It goes hunting.
It craves speed.
It craves dopamine.
It craves Bitcoin first.

Act One: Bitcoin

The initial impulse always defaults to BTC.
That is exactly what we’re seeing.

  • Order books thin.

  • Spot flows rise.

  • Dominance flexes.

  • Twitter gets loud.

  • YouTubers rediscover adjectives.

This is Act One.
Act One is not the whole play.

Act Two: Ethereum

After Bitcoin, the baton passes to Ethereum.
When ETH wakes up, the mindset flips to “risk-on.”

  • Gas perks up.

  • DeFi volumes jump.

  • L2s light.

That’s your signal that the final act is arming.

Act Three: Alts

Then alts ignite.
Not gently.
Violently.

  • Rotations get faster.

  • Timeframes get shorter.

  • Wicks get nastier.

This is the grand finale.
It is glorious and lethal.

What’s Different This Time — And Why It’s Still The Same

Yes, ETFs exist now.
Yes, institutions are here.
Yes, BTC on exchanges sits at multi-year lows.
Scarcity narratives are loud.
Everything looks peak bullish.

That is exactly why I’m cautious.

Why I’m Still Skeptical

ETFs concentrate flows.
They also focus exit doors.
One rotten macro headline can reverse those flows.

You don’t battle a crowd rush down a small corridor.
You position close to the exit and leave ahead of time.

Supply is strained, but reflexivity is tighter.
When prices gap up, leverage chases.
When leverage overextends, unwinds are ferocious.

Human nature didn’t change just because an ETF was approved.
Humans still panic.
Humans still FOMO.
Humans still get dumped on.

The Indicators Screaming “Careful”

I’m not pretending to be a wizard.
I’m not pretending to call tops to the candle.
I use simple, boring, brutal metrics.

  • NUPL pushes into the “massive profit” zone.

  • MVRV climbs above levels that historically invite mean reversion.

  • SOPR grinds to trend break thresholds.

  • Funding rates tilt positive and stay sticky.

  • Open interest rockets faster than spot.

  • Perp premiums widen.

  • Stablecoin dominance falls as people deploy the last dry powder.

In 2017 and 2021 these clusters nailed the neighborhood of the peaks.
Not the exact minute.
The neighborhood.
That is enough to plan exits.

The Rotation Timeline I’m Betting On

I’m not timing a single candle.
I am front-running the sequence I’ve watched twice.

  • BTC impulse.

  • ETH follow-through.

  • Alts go parabolic.

  • Exhaustion.

  • Trap bounce.

  • Air pocket.

The Alt Window

The alt window is the shortest.
It is also the loudest.
It is the most lucrative for the patient.
It is the most ruinous for the greedy.

In 2021 the actual alt fireworks lasted just over a month.
On the next run I would expect even less.

Flow is more algorithmic.
Execution is quicker.
Stories cycle in days.

If you blink, you chase tops.
If you wait, you carry bags.

My November Exit Playbook

Phase 1 - Cut The Risk Tail

  • Dump the riskiest alts first.

  • Trim illiquid long-tails.

  • Close meme flyers and microcaps that need immaculate timing to exit.

  • Exit on strength, not weakness.

  • Respect slippage.

  • Use resting limit orders and scale out.

Phase 2 — Reduce The Spotlight Names

  • Cut big-mid caps basking in story sunlight.

  • Close L2 darlings that soared on rumor.

  • Unwind positions resting on vertical weekly candles.

  • Be a week early, not an hour late.

Phase 3 — De-risk Majors

  • Roll ETH and BTC into stables.

  • Transition to yield strategies with clear risk.

  • Diversify across several custodians and venues.

  • Don’t be a hero.

  • Recall step one of capital compounding: don’t blow up.

Why This Priority

Because after reversals, alts dump 20–30% per day.
They never come back to those highs.
Liquidity vanishes.
Teams disappear.
Roadmaps vanish.
Charts become archaeology.

Leaving “later” becomes leaving in a panic.

How I’ll Get It Done Without Emotion

Talk is cheap.
Execution pays.

  • I set tranches at predetermined levels.

  • I automate as much as possible.

  • I will not move targets up due to a green day.

  • I move targets down only if the market does fail.

I write the plan prior to the dopamine taking hold.
I read the plan when the dopamine screams at me.

Discipline Tools

  • Watch the weekly more than the 5-minute.

  • Respect the 21-week EMA on majors.

  • Never add size on vertical candles.

  • Treat trap bounces as exits, not invitations.

What If I’m Early And The Market Keeps Ripping

Good.
That means my remaining tranches sell higher.
That means my realized PnL grows.
That implies that I can buy back with a clear head if the trend really does continue.

I maintain an invalidation.
Two consecutive weekly closes above my “crazy but possible” line indicates that I reassess.

Not FOMO.
Reassess.

  • I re-risk with specific stops.

  • I use options when liquidity is low.

  • I never pursue the third standard deviation.

Psychological Reality Check

An end to a cycle isn’t an IQ test.
It’s a nerve test.

Your timeline gets smaller.
Your feed is screaming.
Your friends are bragging.
Your brain is begging.

Everybody’s a genius at the peak.
Media pretends Bitcoin was always meant to happen.
Apps trend in the top 10.
Aunties are asking how to purchase.
Google Trends peaks.

This feels like validation.
It is distribution.

Smart money sells to loud money.
I won’t be loud money.
I wish to be liquid when the music ends.

Holding Forever Is Not My Religion

I adore Bitcoin.
I honor Ethereum.
I revere builders.
But my account balance pays my life, not my beliefs.

Holding forever is a beautiful religion if you can bear 80% drawdowns and wait years.
Most can’t.
Most don’t.
Most fake it.
Then they give up at the worst moment.

I would rather book profits into strength.
I would rather avoid the crater.
I would rather redistribute when air is pure and risk premium re-prices.

Liquidity Mechanics You Can’t Ignore

ETFs made bid fabric consistent.
They also made story fabric consistent.
Stories numb risk sensors.
That’s risky.

The Reality

Exchange balances are thin.
That widens squeeze potential in both directions.
It also increases the speed of mean reversion when bids step away.

Perps amplify everything.
Funding positive for too long is not a medal.
It’s a warning.

Crowded longs unwind together.
When they do, there are no chairs.

The Checklist I’ll Run Every November Week

I don’t guess.
I check.
I repeat.

  • Is dominance rolling or still climbing?

  • Is ETH outperforming BTC on the weekly or fading intraday?

  • Are alts printing vertical breakouts or failing retests?

  • Are funding and OI increasing at a faster pace than spot?

  • Are ETF flows stable or wobbly?

  • Are stablecoin balances expanding or contracting?

  • Are Coinbase app ranks, Google searches, and TikTok mentions spiking?

  • Are blow-off candles followed by instant absorption, or by silence?

Green on most of the above indicates distribution is imminent.
I sell into it, not after it.

How I Park Profits Without Sleeping With One Eye Open

I don’t YOLO into random farm APYs.
I am not donating my cycle gains to smart-contract roulette.

  • Hold a healthy chunk in fiat rails I trust.

  • Split stablecoins across issuers and chains.

  • Deploy battle-tested yield only, and cap allocation.

  • Prefer T-bills through solid tokenized products or brokers.

I handle “earn” screens as if they were casino tables.
Security is more important up top.

  • Roll to clean wallets.

  • Roll to clean hardware.

  • Confirm links.

  • Dial it back.

Nothing spoils a victory lap more than a phishing email.

I Expect the Skepticism!

“You’re going to miss the supercycle.”
Perhaps.
Or perhaps the supercycle is a Twitter term for “I didn’t sell and I hope it comes back.”

“You can’t time the market.”
I’m not timing the minute.
I’m respecting the phase.

“Institutions won’t let it fall.”
Institutions are not your parents.
They reap gains just like everybody else.
They just do it in nicer suits.

“Aren’t you bullish long-term?”
Absolutely.
That is why I hold cash when the next real accumulation starts.
Dry powder is a superpower.

I don’t wait for the bell.
I front-run it.

  • If BTC prints weekly RSI in historical blow-off ranges, I cut harder.

  • If ETH/BTC spikes then rolls, I hurry up alt exits.

  • If perps decouple from spot, I take distribution not discovery.

  • If money reaches cartoon levels, I let others give.

  • If my DMs become filled with “it can’t go down,” I consider that my last warning.

I leave feeling to influencers.
I leave euphoria to telegram rooms.
I leave denial to bagholders.

I get my profit and I go outside.

What I’ll Do After I Sell

I won’t feign to call the actual top.
I will wait for the first large flush.
I will wait for the first fatal bounce.
I will wait for time to elapse.

Then I will rebuild positions incrementally.

  • Projects that weather the winter.

  • Majors close to long-term support.

  • Survivors with actual cash flow.

  • A sleeve for memes when the crowd is bored again.

  • Allow the next story to ferment.

The objective is straightforward:
Preserve principal.
Compound through cycles.
Allow hype to pay for patience.

This Is Not Fear. This Is Discipline.

When you notice I sold in November, don’t confuse it with fear.
It’s not panic.
It’s not bitterness.
It’s discipline hardened in two previous wars.

The cycle always dies the same.
The names vary.
The acronyms vary.
The charts rhyme.

November is the final clean window to lock in gains before emotions take over logic.
November is the month to sell euphoria for liquidity.
November is the month that the big money departs quietly as the crowd cries for new all-time highs.

I will be joining them.
I will thank the market for the presents.
I will bank the victories.
I will not become greedy.

Sell into the sprint. Not in the stumble.

If I’m mistaken, I lose a tail.
If I’m correct, I retain the lion’s share.

That gamble created me in 2017.
It preserved me in 2021.
It will work again.

Call me an idiot today.
I’ll be liquid tomorrow.
I’ll be patient tomorrow.
And when the next build-up begins, I’ll be willing to purchase what others are compelled to sell.

That is how you ride cycles.
That is how you grow.
That is why I’m selling all my crypto in November.

Enjoyed this article?

It would mean a lot if you could give it a clap and follow for more crypto alpha🌟Hold + Click 👏.

Wondering how I do crypto research?

For the longest time, I used to scour Twitter + Grok for my research and sentiment analysis. For the last weeks, I’ve been giving Perplexity Pro a try — and it seriously blew my mind.

Home → Finance → Crypto. So, there is an inbuilt section for crypto. It’s like having a research analyst built into the browser. How do I use it?

  • Real-time data — I use it for Market scans, trading vol, live exchange data.

  • Sentiment analysis — I used to use Grok for this, but Perplexity changes the game completely. It goes beyond X and pulls insights from across the web.

  • Custom alerts — I’ve built watchlists for top coins and get updates as things move. This makes it impossible to miss any upcoming high-impact news events and is way better than any news sites.

  • Deep research reports — By far the best deep research assistant I’ve used.

If you’re invested in crypto or simply curious, you should also give it a try.

Exported from Medium on March 8, 2026.

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